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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-04-01T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-04-01T17:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5077/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-04-05T09:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-05T04:50Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

Attached please find a text file with an experimental 
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection estimate at 1 AU 
produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center 
at NASA/GSFC.

The estimate is based on heliospheric MHD simulations 
using the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination.

The estimate is performed solely for research purposes 
with no attached warranties, direct or implied.


CCMC team.




Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU 
based on heliospheric MHD simulations.
Produced by the Community Coordinated 
Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC
for the Air Force Weather Agency.
For more information please contact:
Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov
******************************************************
Estimate issued on  2014/04/02,  10:59:25  EST
******************************************************

Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-04-05T04:50Z
(confidence level +-7 hours)

Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.1
(confidence level +-8 hours)

Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9
(under quiet conditions:  Rmin(Re)=10;
R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6)

Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles
(angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp):
(Kp)_90=3
(Kp)_135=5
(Kp)_180=5


************************************************************

Here are the links to the movies of the modeled event


http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-pdyn.gif


Inner Planets
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif


Timelines
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_001900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

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Messenger
******************************************************

CME did not hit the Messenger.
or
CME impact is very weak.

******************************************************

Mars
******************************************************

Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-04-07T13:37Z



Stereo A
******************************************************

CME did not hit the StereoA.
or
CME impact is very weak.

******************************************************

Stereo B
******************************************************
CME did not hit the StereoB.
or
CME impact is very weak.

******************************************************

Spitzer
******************************************************
CME did not hit the Spitzer.
or
CME impact is very weak.

******************************************************

Lead Time: 66.67 hour(s)
Difference: 4.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-04-02T15:00Z

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